Evidence for history-dependence of influenza pandemic emergence
نویسندگان
چکیده
Influenza A viruses have caused a number of global pandemics, with considerable mortality in humans. Here, we analyse the time periods between influenza pandemics since 1700 under different assumptions to determine whether the emergence of new pandemic strains is a memoryless or history-dependent process. Bayesian model selection between exponential and gamma distributions for these time periods gives support to the hypothesis of history-dependence under eight out of nine sets of modelling assumptions. Using the fitted parameters to make predictions shows a high level of variability in the modelled number of pandemics from 2010-2110. The approach we take here relies on limited data, so is uncertain, but it provides cheap, safe and direct evidence relating to pandemic emergence, a field where indirect measurements are often made at great risk and cost.
منابع مشابه
Influenza Pandemic Periodicity, Virus Recycling, and the Art of Risk Assessment
Influenza pandemic risk assessment is an uncertain art. The theory that influenza A virus pandemics occur every 10 to 11 years and seroarcheologic evidence of virus recycling set the stage in early 1976 for risk assessment and risk management of the Fort Dix, New Jersey, swine influenza outbreak. Additional data and passage of time proved the theory untenable. Much has been learned about influe...
متن کاملDetection of Seasonal Influenza H1N1 and H3N2 Viruses using RT-PCR Assay during 2009 Flu Pandemic in Golestan Province
Abstract Background and Objective: The emergence of a novel H1N1influenza A virus of animal origin with transmissibility from human to human poses pandemic concern. Current subtypes of Seasonal influenza A viruses spread in human are influenza A H1N1 influenza A H3N2 and influenza type B viruses. The aim of this study was to determine current strains of the H3N2 and new H1N1 subtypes of influe...
متن کاملتغییرات ژنتیکی ویروس و فرار از سامانه ایمنی، چالش‌های پیش‌رو علیه آنفلوآنزا: مقاله مروری
The spread of influenza viruses in multiple bird and mammalian species is a worldwide serious threat to human and animal populations' health and raise major concern for ongoing pandemic in humans. Direct transmission of the avian viruses which have sialic acid specific receptors similar to human influenza viruses are a warning to the emergence of a new mutant strain that is likely to share mole...
متن کاملAmantadine-Resistant among Seasonal H1N1 and 2009 Pandemic Isolated of Influenza A Viruses in Iran
Background and Aims: Influenza A viruses are important pathogens for humans especially in pandemic episodes. Two adamantane derivates, amantadine and rimantadine, are used for prophylaxis and treatment of influenza A virus infections. However, single amino acid substitutions in the M2 transmembrane domain which lead to amantadine resistance of these viruses occur at residues 26, 27, 30, 31 or 3...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره 7 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2017